Participants are advised that although the contract deadline has been extended to 31 December 2009 this does NOT apply to deliverable and milestone deadlines (which are already agreed and stated in the Description of Work).

All deliverables should be submitted in Microsoft Word to the co-ordinator via the relevant RT leader, with a deliverable cover sheet (Word) on the front of your deliverable by the end of the month shown in the Description of Work (DoW). For example, month 37 means by the end of September 2007.


No. Deliverable name Month due
D0.1 Kick-off meeting Oct 04
D0.2 Director and secretary appointed Oct 04
D0.3 Second meeting of EMB Aug 05
D0.4 Third EMB meeting Feb 06
D0.5 Year 1 Activity and Management Reports Oct 05
D0.6 Month 13-30 Detailed Implementation Plan Oct 05
D0.7 Project web page Feb 05
D0.8 Summary of general assembly meetings
Second general assembly
Third general assembly
Fourth general assembly
Fifth general assembly
D0.9 Minutes from Management Board meetings
D0.10 Roadmap for producing the end-of-project report to showcase the project's outcomes Feb 07
D0.11 Strategy for ENSEMBLES' role within the international scientific community Aug 06
D0.12 Roadmap for organisation of the end-of-project conference to showcase the project's outcomes Feb 08
D0.13 End of project conference Nov 09
D0.14 End of project report Nov 09
RT1 Top
D1.0 Web site Aug 05
D1.1 Progress report on construction and testing of ESMs Aug 05
D1.2 Systematic documentation and inter-comparison of ensemble perturbation and weighting methods Aug 05
D1.3 Advanced ocean data assimilations systems, based on improved optimal interpolation, Ensemble Kalman Filter, and variational methods, developed in the ENACT project, adapted to the OGCMs to be used in the ENSEMBLES system. Feb 06
D1.4 A new multi-model coupled model ensemble system for seasonal to decadal forecasts will be created and installed at ECMWF, with capabilities to run, in addition, perturbed parametrizations, and stochastic physics. Feb 06
D1.5 WP1.1 workshop May 06
D1.6 Report on the developed and tested ESMs Aug 06
D1.7 Interim probability distribution of transient climate change over Europe will be produced, for use by other RTs in testing methodologies for prediction of climate change impacts Aug 06
D1.8 Updated assessment in terms of forecast quality and potential economic value of the relative merits of the multi-model approach, the perturbed parameter approach, and the stochastic physics approach, to representation of model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasts Feb 07
D1.9 Report on the production of OPA/NEMO analyses and initial conditions for use in seasonal to decadal Stream 2 hindcasts. Jun 07
D1.10 Set of hindcasts using the lagged average method and earlier start dates carried out with GloSea following the stream 1 setup Aug 07
D1.11 Scientific report/paper documenting the improved seasonal hindcast skill of the ECHAM5/OM1 coupled model in the Ensembles stream 1 simulations, relative to DEMETER and the model improvements responsible. Feb 08
D1.12 A report/publication comparing the Oxford and Hadley Centre methods for obtaining probabilistic climate forecasts from perturbed parameter ensembles. Feb 08
D1.13 Scientific report/paper documenting the seasonal hindcast skill of the most recent version of the stochastic physics scheme developed at ECMWF Feb 08
D1.14 A comparison of perturbed physics ensembles constructed with different models Feb 09
D1.15 Report describing improved probabilistic predictions of 21st century climate over Europe, obtained by combining global model Hadley Centre perturbed physics ensemble results, multi-model ensemble results, and observational constraints. May 09
D1.16 Assessment of relationships between errors in seasonal to decadal hindcasts and longer term climate predictions, found in perturbed physics ensembles using the DePreSys system May 09
D1.17 Updated comparison of the multi-model, perturbed physical parameters and stochastic physics approaches to tackle model uncertainties in the seasonal-to decadal hindcasts and first attempt to combine the three methodologies into one system accounting for model error Aug 09
D1.18 Forecast quality assessment of the seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts Aug 09
D1.19 Paper on the influence of the seasonal cycle on ENSO predictability Aug 09
RT2A Top
D2A.0 Web site Feb 05
D2A.0.2 Workshop presentations on the RT2A website Jul 06
D2A.0.3 Presentations from annual workshop on the RT2A website Aug 07
D2A.0.4 Report on the Stream Two experimental design Feb 08
D2A.0.5 Presentations from annual workshop on the RT2A website Aug 08
D2A.1 Several years of ocean analyses to be used as initial conditions for the seasonal-to-decadal hindcast production Feb 06
D2A.1.2 Design of a suitable strategy for the initialisation of the decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2001 period Feb 07
D2A.1.3 Preliminary assessment of the Stream 2 hindcasts (Joint deliverable with WP1.5) Aug 09
D2A.2 Simulations based on existing atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice models over the past 100 years (mean climate, interannual variability and trends) Feb 06
D2A.2.2 Report/manuscript describing estimates of the radiative forcing used in the different stream one simulations Feb 07
D2A.2.3 Final report on combined second and first stream simulations of the 20th century Jun 08
D2A.3 First set (Stream 1) of scenario experiments for the prediction of future climate using existing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models Feb 06
D2A.3.2 Data and report/manuscript of stream one simulations for the prediction of future climate Aug 06
D2A.3.3 Report on 21st century scenario simulations in stream 2 (A1B and E1) Feb 09
D2A.3.4 Report or paper on preliminary results of 21st century E1 scenario simulations including simple climate model output. May 09
D2A.4.1 Description of the formats (data and metadata) to be used within ENSEMBLES May 05
D2A.4.3 Preliminary version of the ECMWF public data server for dissemination of seasonal-to-decadal simulations. Feb 07
D2A.4.4 Preliminary version of the ENSEMBLES view into the WDCC archive Feb 07
D2A.4.5 Stream 1 data centrally stored in distributed archive (CERA, PCMDI) Apr 08
D2A.4.6 20th century runs of stream 2: all data archived centrally in CERA data base Oct 08
D2A.4.7 Stream 2 data completely archived at CERA data base Aug 09
RT2B Top
D2B.0 Operational web site Nov 04
D2B.1 Experimental plan for 20 km RCM ensemble simulations Feb 05
D2B.2 Technical specification of WP2B.2 and WP2B.3 work, including statistical downscaling methods to be used. Aug 05
D2B.2 Technical specification of WP2B.2 and WP2B.3 work, including case-study regions, output variables, scenario formats and accompanying documentation. Aug 05
D2B.3 Central server hosting RCM output data from the ENSEMBLES simulations and protocols for preparation of the data to be hosted Feb 06
D2B.4 A first prototype of web service for downscaling at seasonal-to-decadal timescales Feb 06
D2B.5 Methodology for Markov chain modelling of sequences of atmospheric circulation patterns for implementation with a conditional model of extreme hydro-meteorological events Feb 06
D2B.6 Refinement of the Reality Ensemble Averaging (REA) framework Feb 06
D2B.7 Methodologies for pattern scaling across the full range of RT2A GCM ensemble members Feb 06
D2B.8 Working paper on 'Model weighting for the construction of probabilistic scenarios in ENSEMBLES' Dec 05
D2B.9 Report on the RCA3 dynamical downscaling of an ECHAM5 A1B or A2 GCM simulation for the period 1950-2050 (revised September 2008) Jan 06
D2B.10 Preliminary report on a comparison of statistical downscaling and very-high resolution dynamical downscaling with the WRF model Jun 06
D2B.11 A regional scenario web portal, linked to the RT2B website, providing briefing material (including information sheets and working papers) for scenario developers and users, together with links to relevant datasets and tools (including the web-based downscaling service, D2B.4 and D2B.19). The portal will also incorporate a link to the DMI RCM data server (D2B.3) which it will complement and enhance. It will be updated on a continuing basis for the remainder of the project
Jun 07
D2B.12 Recommendations for the application of statistical downscaling methods to seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts in ENSEMBLES Aug 06
D2B.13 ERA-40 based predictor data set for statistical downscaling Aug 06
D2B.14 Recommendations for the modification of statistical downscaling methods for the construction of probabilistic scenarios (revised November 2008) Nov 06
D2B.15 Observed case-study data sets for scenario construction and assessment Dec 06
D2B.16 Improved conditional weather generator for extreme precipitation events Feb 07
D2B.17 GCM-based predictor data set for statistical downscaling Oct 07
D2B.18 Technical protocol for the construction of ENSEMBLES stastical downscaling and scenario generator tools Nov 07
D2B.19 Extention of the ENSEMBLES web-based service for downscaling Feb 07
D2B.20 Preliminary assessment of changes in regional weather and climate over Europe using ENSEMBLES climate model outputs as they become available Nov 07
D2B.21 Description of the 'quick-look' analysis procedure for the RCM scenario simulations Feb 07
D2B.22 RCM scenario simulations at 25km resolution available at the RCM database (month 36: a few)
RCM scenario simulations at 25km resolution available at the RCM database (month 40: most)
RCM scenario simulations at 25km resolution available at the RCM database (month 48: all)
Aug 07
Dec 07
Sep 09
D2B.23 Journal paper on a test case application of the downscaling portal for seasonal forecasts in agriculture or energy sectors Feb 08
D2B.24 Results of the 'quick-look' analysis of the RCM simulations Dec 07
D2B.25 Journal paper on pattern scaling GCM ensembles Aug 08
D2B.26 Recommendations and guidance on methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate projections
Joint deliverable: Also D6.13
Aug 08
D2B.27 Assessment of the robustness of statistical downscaling techniques using GCM and RCM output Aug 08
D2B.28 Journal paper on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate in the Eastern Mediterranean
Joint deliverable: Also D6.19
Apr 09
D2B.29 Journal paper on the results of the seasonal dynamical downscaling method Aug 08
D2B.30 Journal paper on the refined Reliability Ensemble Averaging framework
Appendix to D2B.30
Feb 09
D2B.31 Report on the statistical downscaling of extremes from RCM output Feb 09
D2B.32 Journal papers on uncertainty in regional climate projections
Appendix to D2B.32
Feb 09
D2B.33 Probabilistic climate projections and user documentation for case-study regions Feb 09
D2B.34 Journal paper on methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate projections (based on D2B.26) Feb 09
D2B.35 Journal papers on the impacts application of methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate projections Feb 09
D2B.36 Final version of the statistical downscaling web service Aug 09
RT3 Top
D3.1.1 Identification and definition of non-climatic environmental regional changes (completed) Feb 05
D3.1.2 Setting up a configuration of models to be run in hind-cast mode using ERA-40 boundary information Aug 05
D3.1.3 First examples of ERA40 hind-cast simulations at 50km resolution Feb 06
D3.1.4 Hind-cast simulations at ~50km resolution available at the RCM database. Nov 06
D3.1.5 Hind-cast simulations at ~20km resolution available at the RCM database. Feb 07
D3.2.1 Definition of measures of reliability based on ability to simulate observed climate in hind-cast mode Feb 06
D3.2.2 RCM-specific weights based on their ability to simulate the present climate, calibrated for the ERA40-based simulations (updated 12 March 2009, Appendix added 1 June 2009) Oct 07
D3.3.1 Evaluated RCM-system for use in RT2B (choice of RCM-GCM combinations and preliminary RCM weights) Feb 07
D3.3.2 Final version RCM-system for use in RT2B based on RCM-specific weights from WP3.2 Nov 07
D3.4.1 Analysis of fine scale skills, large scale consistency with GCM and GCM biases for the present-day period of the RT2B RCM ensemble simulations Oct 07
D3.4.2 Application of scale and GCM biases analyses to revise pdf techniques (WP3.2) and analysis of present climate of RT2B RCM ensembles transient simulation Jun 08
D3.5.1 RCM simulation plan (AMMA, West African region) Feb 08
D3.5.2 All RCM data available to ENSEMBLES and AMMA in database Feb 09
D3.5.3 Report on RCM evaluation for the AMMA region Aug 09
RT4 Top
D4.0.1 Website Aug 05
D4.0.2 Design specification for the coordinated time-slice experiments Feb 06
D4.0.3 Set up a data archive for the RT4 coordinated experiments Aug 06
D4.1.1 Characterisation of the water vapour and cloud feedbacks in response to anthropogenic forcing Feb 06
D4.1.2 Analysis of the results from the first phase of the Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Intercomparison project (C4MIP) Feb 06
D4.1.3 Meeting and report on how to constrain water vapour and cloud feedbacks processes produced by GCMs under climate change using observations and process studies Dec 07
D4.1.4 Assessment of the different contributions of the radiative feedacks to the mean and spread of global warming estimate in climate models. Aug 09
D4.1.5 Assessments of the role of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in future climate scenarios and report on how to reduced uncertainty in the processes involved Aug 09
D4.1.6 Assessment of non-linear feedbacks and possible abrupt climate change in the atmosphere-land-ocean-cryosphere Aug 09
D4.2.1 Characterization of modes of large-scale, low frequency climate variability Feb 06
D4.2.2 Statement on the influence of low frequency variability of the Atlantic sector on European climate for current and future climates Jan 08
D4.2.3 Analysis of the land/sea warming ratio in RT4 coordinated experiments Feb 08
D4.2.4 Statement on the changes in natural modes of climate variability under anthropogenic climate change based on scenario and timeslice simulations Aug 09
D4.3.1 Statistical methods for identifying regimes and estimating extreme-value tail probabilities using multi-model gridded data. Reports will be written up on this and disseminated to all partners and software in the R language and will be made freely available. Feb 06
D4.3.2 Report on the relationship between extreme events in surface temperature and the large scale circulation over both the S Europe/Mediterannean and N Europe/Arctic regions both in reanalysis and model simulation Dec 07
D4.4.1 Synthesis of current estimates and mechanisms of predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales, including understanding the influence of ocean initial conditions, and with a focus on the North Atlantic European sector Aug 06
D4.4.2 Analysis of the processes that give rise to decadal forecast skill in PREDICATE predictability experiments Feb 08
D4.4.3 Analysis of the impact of Intraseasonal Variability on the seasonal predictability in the Tropics Feb 08
D4.4.4 Advances in the understanding of the physical processes underlying climate predictability at various time-scales: a synthesis of ENSEMBLE results Aug 09
D4.4.5 A scientific report on the mechanisms for stratosphere troposphere coupling on the monthly timescale. Aug 09
RT5 Top
D5.0i Meeting report and RT reports Aug 05
D5.0 Meeting report and RT reports Feb 06
D5.1 Workshop on RT5 key issues and research priorities for years 1.5-5 of ENSEMBLES Aug 05
D5.2 Assessment of the decadal-scale variations of precipitation extremes in ERA-40 by comparison to observations in the Alpine Region Feb 06
D5.3 Scientific article/report and R software on optimal statistical methods for combining multi-model forecasts to make probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme events Feb 06
D5.4 Scientific article/report on the best methods for verifying probability forecasts of rare events Feb 06
D5.5 Preliminary report on systematic errors in the ENSEMBLES models May 06
D5.6 Outline assessment of decadal forecast quality in the IndoPacific sector from the initial ENSEMBLES forecasts Jun 06
D5.7 Assessment of the skill of seasonal NAO and PNA using multi-model seasonal integrations from DEMETER Feb 06
D5.8 Assessment of the available station density for the gridding and daily data quality/homogeneity Feb 06
D5.9 Report on the analysis of possible gridding methods Feb 06
D5.10 Workshop report on "Lessons learned from seasonal forecasting health protection" Feb 06
D5.11 Assessment of the representation of the tropical intraseasonal variability and its impact on seasonal predictability Mar 07
D5.12 Assessment of the climate predictability in perfect-model mode over the North Atlantic/European sector for seasonal to decadal timescales based on high resolution AGCM simulations Feb 07
D5.13 Report illustrating the challenges of interpretation and application of an ensemble of imperfect models on seasonal timescales Feb 07
D5.14 Assessment of the impact of model resolution on the simulation of ENSO Aug 06
D5.15 Assessment of the impact of improved land-surface physics on the simulation of the Boreal summer surface climate Feb 07
D5.16 Assessment of the representation of cloud regimes in the tropical regions Oct 06
D5.17 Assessment of the representation of monsoon and its teleconnection with the ocean variability from IPCC scenarios with the European models Oct 06
D5.18 Daily gridded datasets for surface climate variables covering Europe for the greater part (= Major Milestone 5.3)
Nov 07
D5.19 Scientific paper on the impact of the underestimates of Northern Hemisphere blocking in seasonal and climate change predictions of European winter precipitation Aug 07
D5.20 Note on observational data collected for the ENSEMBLES daily dataset for Europe Aug 07
D5.21 Preliminary evaluation of extremes in RCM data for selected European regions May 08
D5.22 Detailed study of the application of the index-flood method to precipitation extremes from a transient RCM run. Oct 08
D5.23 Detailed comparison of extremes in daily station observations and in gridded daily data Oct 08
D5.24 Scientific publication on the mechanics of multi-model combination Feb 09
D5.25 Understanding the double ITCZ in the eastern Pacific Apr 09
D5.26 Model performance in the Indo Pacific sector Apr 09
D5.27 Provision of diagnostics to assess model performances with an emphasis on the tropical regions Apr 09
D5.28 Effects of systematic biases in the stratosphere on the tropospheric climate Apr 09
D5.29 Forecast quality assessment of the seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts (Joint deliverable with WP1.5) Aug 09
D5.30 Evaluation of precipitation extremes in an ensemble of transient regional climate model simulations for the Rhine basin Aug 09
D5.31 Evaluation of trends in extremes from 1951 to the present in gridded daily temperature data compared to EMSEMBLES RCM simulations (particularly those forced with ERA-40 and NCEP boundary conditions) Aug 09
D5.32 Detailed study of heavy precipitation events in Alpine region and Rhine basin using ERA40 driven RCM Aug 09
D5.33 Scientific paper on the ability of different RCMs to represent extremes in the East Mediterranean Aug 09
D5.34 Report on verification scores used by ENSEMBLES seasonal application groups Feb 09
D5.35 Report on the impact of downscaling on forecast skill Jun 09
D5.36 Optimization of the objective drought-CP-classification Aug 08
D5.37 Validation of "critical" CPs associated with hydrological extremes (floods and droughts) and assessment of their changes in selected transient RCM simulations for selected regions of the Rhine basin Aug 09
RT6 Top
D6.0 Internal web site Nov 04
D6.1 Versions of the LPJ and Hadley Centre models which include interactive annual crops. Version of the LPJ model with globally applicable representation of managed forests Feb 06
D6.2 First-phase impact models to predict damage to human activities, the environment and tropical annual crops from climate extremes: e.g. wind storm, drought, flood and heat stress Feb 06
D6.3 Calibrated and tested crop, forest, hydrology and energy impact models; baseline data and scenarios for constructing impact response surfaces Feb 06
D6.4 Seasonal-to-decadal application models running as part of an integrated probabilistic ESM based on DEMETER hindcasts Feb 06
D6.5 Global benchmarking of historical runs of LPJ, JULES and Orchidee (offline) and the Hadley Centre and IPSL coupled models (online) against a variety of terrestrial data sets Sep 07
D6.6 Initial implementation of fire as an Earth System process in the Hadley Centre model Feb 07
D6.7 Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models May 07
D6.8 Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage May 07
D6.9 Report on an intercomparison study of modelled, Europe-wide forest fire risk for present day conditions Aug 06
D6.10 Recommendations for the application of statistical downscaling methods to seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts in ENSEMBLES Aug 06
D6.11 Report on the recommendation of methods to evaluate hindcasts probabilistically May 07
D6.12 Preliminary global risk analysis for climate change, derived by forcing the offline global impacts models with outputs from the RT2a Stream I ensemble Aug 07
D6.13 Recommendations and guidance on methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate projections
Joint deliverable: Also D2B.26
Aug 08
D6.14 Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe Feb 09
D6.15 Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture Aug 08
D6.16 Version of LPJ including mammalian herbivory. Aug 09
D6.17 Global risk analysis for the impacts of climate change on key ecosystem properties. Sep 09
D6.18 Assessment of historical and projected future climate impacts simulated with fully coupled models Sep 09
D6.19 Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean
Joint deliverable: Also D2B.28
Apr 09
D6.20 Contribution to a paper on the value of s2d data for reinsurance application in Europe (revised December 2009) Feb 09
D6.21 Report on the forecast quality of seasonal predictions of malaria incidence in Botswana over the period 1982-2005. Aug 09
D6.22 Report on the quality of seasonal predictions of wheat yield and irrigation needs in Northern Italy Sep 09
RT7 Top
D7.0 Web site Nov 04
D7.1 Ensemble of adapted IPCC scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and land use change Feb 05
D7.1b Critical assessment of the IPCC SRES scenarios Feb 05
D7.1c A review of the baseline scenarios that have emerged since the SRES, and the selection of one scenario, based on that which gives the most new scientific information over and above the SRES scenarios, to be made available for the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 simulations Sep 06
D7.2 Ensembles of emission abatement scenarios Oct 06
D7.3 Scenarios of adaptive capacity | Paper: Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis Mar 06
D7.4 Two modelling systems for estimating climate change feedbacks on scenarios Feb 06
D7.5 A set of health impact interfaces for climate change impact models Mar 07
D7.6 A set of economic impact interfaces for climate change impact models Feb 06
D7.7 Estimates of the effect of climate change on the emissions of carbon dioxide and sulphur aerosols Aug 07
D7.8 Scientific publication on the direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity. Aug 08
D7.9 Revision of emission scenarios on the basis of climate change impacts, including the E1 stabilisation scenario. Jun 09
RT8 Top
D8.0 Project-based web site Nov 04
D8.1 ENSEMBLES public web site Nov 04
D8.2 Project publicity material Feb 05
D8.3a Electronic newsletters on a 6-month basis for the ENSEMBLES community six-monthly
D8.3b Targeted information sheet-newsletter for the non-Ensembles science and stakeholder community Feb 08
Oct 08
Jun 09
D8.4 Internet Project "Public Understanding of Science" Feb 07
Feb 08
Feb 09
D8.5 Conference papers Feb 06
D8.6 Policy paper on greenhouse-gas emission scenarios Feb 08
D8.7 Cross-cutting publications in peer-reviewed book series Aug 08
D8.8c Workshop on Extreme Climatic Events in Switzerland Apr 06
D8.8d Workshop on Climate, Climatic Change and Impacts: Applications to Eastern Europe in Romania Oct 06
D8.8e Workshop and report on Adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the European Alps Nov 06
D8.8f Workshop + report on Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation in the Mediterranean (Greece) Oct 08
D8.8g Workshop + report on the Socio-Economic Drivers of Climatic Change Aug 08
D8.8h Workshop + report on Climate Change and Desertification: Monitoring, Modeling and Forecasting (Wengen) Sep 07
D8.8i European Research Course on Atmospheres (ERCA) for PhD students Jan 08
D8.9a European Research Course on Atmospheres in Grenoble Feb 06
D8.9b Short course on current state-of-the-art global and regional climate modelling approaches Aug 08
D8.9c Training Module on "Climate Change and Health" for PhD students Feb 08
D8.9d Training Module on “air quality-climate interactions” using Smart Board technology” Jul 09
D8.10 Staff exchange programs
First call (Feb 06)
Second call (withdrawn)
Third call (Jan 08)
Feb 06
Feb 08
D8.11 Mentor training Nov 07

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