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Ensembles Fifth General Assembly, 20-23 October 2008

Programme 20-23 October 2008

The Fifth Ensembles General Assembly will take place 20-23 October at the Magdalena Palace, Santander. Below is the final programme for the meeting.

Monday 20 October 2008: Parallel Sessions
Time Item/Topic Location
0900-1000 Registration Great Entrance Hall
(Coffee at 1100)
Parallel sessions Main Floor/First Floor
RT2A Reviewing the progress of the stream 2 simulations (30 pax) Santo Mauro's Room (First floor, room 1)
WP2B.2 and WP2B.3 (30 pax) Bringas Room (Main floor, room 5)
RT3 (30 pax) Old Library (First floor, room 2)
RT4 (40 pax) Riancho Room (Main floor, room 4)
Extremes Infant's Room (First floor, room 3)
1230-1400 Lunch and Gender Action Committee meeting Dining Room x
Coffee at 1530
Parallel sessions Main Floor/First Floor
1400-1500: RT2B, RT3, RT6 (WP6.2 and WP6.3) downstream communication session, for discussions on the RCM outputs. Riancho Room (Main floor, room 4)
1400: RT8 (20 pax) Infant's Room (First floor, room 3)
1400: RT2A Reviewing the progress of the stream 2 simulations (30 pax) Santo Mauro Room (First floor, room 1)
1500: RT3 (20 pax) Old Library (First floor, room 2)
1500: RT6 (30 pax) Bringas Room (Main floor, room 5)
1700: Briefing session for RT leaders and facilitators about the parallel sessions on Thursday Queen's Audience Room (Main floor, room 6)
1800 Boat trip on the bay of Santander. "Tapas" tour at restaurants downtown (delegates to pay for themselves)

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Tuesday 21 October 2008: Plenary Session
Time Item/Topic Speaker Location
0830 Registration Royal Stables
0900 Welcoming speeches from local VIPs: José Carlos Gómez (Vice Provost for Research of UC), Francisco Cadarso (President of AEMET), Íñigo de la Serna (Mayor of Santander) Auditorium
0930 Introduction to GA5 (structure, aims and objectives for this meeting, including a description and the aims of the parallel sessions on Thursday morning) Paul van der Linden (Met Office)
0950 RT1 Seasonal to decadal predictions from the stream 2 simulations Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
1010 A Perturbed Physics Ensemble with EGMAM – Uncertainty in Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity Falk Niehörster (FUB)
1030 Coffee break
1100 RT2A Progress and plans Jean-François Royer (CNRM) Auditorium
1120 Data availability of global seasonal-to-decadal ensemble simulations Francisco Doblas-Reyes (ECMWF)
1140 RCM weighting work in WP3.2 Filippo Giorgi (ICTP)
1200 Buffet lunch (provided) and Poster session Dining room x
1400 The role of model bias in regional climate change projections Jens H Christensen (DMI) Auditorium
1420 Present-climate evaluation and climate change projections for the water and heat budgets of the Mediterranean Sea using ENSEMBLES RCM simulations Emilia Sanchez-Gomez (CNRM)
1440 WP3.1 Analysis of resolution dependence of RCM performance Sara Rauscher (ICTP)
1500 RT2B Status of the RCM Climate change simulations Daniela Jacob (MPI)
1530 Coffee break
1600 Progress of the research project of multi-model ensembles and down-scaling methods for assessment of climate change around the Asian region Izuru Takayabu (MRI, Japan) Auditorium
1620 Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling methods and results in development across Canada Philippe Gachon (Environment Canada)
1640 ENSEMBLES interaction with the AMMA project (FP6) Paolo Ruti (ENEA)
1700 The Data Downscaling Portal: A user's perspective José Manuel Gutiérrez (University Cantabria)
1720 Discussion of the day's presentations and concluding remarks from Coordinator John Mitchell (Met Office)
1730 Close
1800 Local host reception (on-site)

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Wednesday 22 October 2008: Plenary Session
Time Item/Topic Speaker Location
0830 Registration Royal Stables
0900 RT7: The E1 emissions scenario, development and use in climate models and policy development Detlef van Vuuren (PBL) Auditorium
0920 Can pattern scaling be used to expand the ENSEMBLES GCM-RCM matrix? Lizzie Kendon (Met Office)
0940 RT4 Progress and results to date, plans for the next year Buwen Dong (Reading University)
1000 Seasonal prediction of extreme European climate: Case studies of the summer 2003 and the winter 2005/06 Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
1020 Discussion of the morning's topics John Mitchell (Met Office)
1030 Coffee break
1100 Assessment of daily extremes from the RCM integrations Erasmo Buonomo (Met Office) Auditorium
1120 RT4 Contribution of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover to seasonal climate predictability Hervé Douville (CNRM)
1140 The mechanics of multi-model combination Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss)
1200 Buffet lunch (provided) and Mentor/Mentee meeting Dining room x
1330 Storminess in the ENSEMBLES simulations Markus Donat (FUB) Auditorium
1350 WP5.2/WP5.3 Intraseasonal variability Prince Xavier (IPSL)
1410 WP5.4 Analysis of precipitation extremes in transient RCM runs Martin Hanel (KNMI)
1430 RT6 Steps towards seamless integration for health impacts Anne Jones/Cyril Caminade (Liverpool University)
1450 RT6 Climate change and projected impacts on the electricity sector in France Laurent Dubus (EDF)
1510 RT6 Climate change and projected impacts in agriculture: an example on mediterranean crops Roberto Ferrise (DISAT)
1530 Coffee break
1600 Using RCM simulations from Ensembles to assess climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources Phil Graham (SMHI) Auditorium
1620 RT7 Overview of progress. Gender Action Plan/Mentoring Programme Sari Kovats (LSHTM)
1640 RT8 Overview of the activities of the past year, plans for the final year including workshops and stakeholder meetings Martin Beniston (UNIGE)
1700 Project overview from the Director. RT0 Progress on deliverables and meeting project's overall aims Paul van der Linden (Met Office)
1730 Close
1900 Conference Dinner, off-site within walking distance (delegates to pay for themselves)

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Thursday 23 October 2008
Parallel meetings (Main Palace Building)
  The parallel meetings are based on the 3 aims of the project, which are:
1. Develop an EPS for Europe to produce probabilistic estimates of CC over different timescales
2. Quantify and reduce uncertainty in climate models
3. Link the outputs impact models for different systems/sectors

The discussion in the parallel meetings should address:
A. Progress across all RTs on the topic
B. Work remaining to complete this topic in all RTs
C. Integrating the topic across the project
D. How the topic should be described/treated in the final report
E. Problems in the treatment of this topic (gaps, etc)
F. How the project goal on this topic has been accomplished.
Riancho Room (Main Floor, room 4) Bringas Room (Main Floor, room 5)
0900 1. Probabilistic projections
(RT1, RT2A, RT2B, RT3 and RT6)
RT1 facilitators: J Murphy and F Doblas-Reyes
RT2A facilitator: P Rogel
RT2B facilitator: tbd
RT3 facilitator: J H Christensen
RT6 facilitator: A Morse
2. Reducing uncertainty
(RT2A, RT2B, RT3, RT4, RT5, RT6, RT7)
RT2A facilitator: H Huebener
RT2B facilitator: D Jacob
RT3 facilitator: tbd
RT4 facilitator: B Dong or J-L Dufresne
RT5 facilitator: E Manzini
RT6 facilitator: tbd
1030 Coffee break
Plenary (Royal Stables)
1100 Brief summary of the PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS parallel meeting followed by plenary discussion Led by the facilitator(s) of the parallel meeting
1130 Brief summary of the REDUCING UNCERTAINTY parallel meeting followed by plenary discussion Led by the facilitator(s) of the parallel meeting
Overview of science results. "Big Picture" presentations with emphasis on integration
1200 RT1 probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change at large regional scales James Murphy (Met Office)
1220 RT2A Multi-model assessment of anthropogenic climate change Erich Roeckner (MPI)
1240 RT3 Performance based RCM weighting Jens Christensen (DMI)
1300 Lunch (provided)
1400 RT2B methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate projections and their application in impact modelling Clare Goodess (UEA)
1420 RT4 Large scale uncertainties of climate change projections (and how they may drive regional or local uncertainties) Jean-Louis Dufresne (CNRS-IPSL)
1440 RT5 Overview of key RT5 results and their integration across ENSEMBLES RTs Albert Klein Tank (KNMI)
1500 RT6 Overview of impact model results Andy Morse (Livepool University)
1520 Concluding remarks from the project Co-ordinator John Mitchell (Met Office)
1530 End of General Assembly and coffee break
Friday 24 October 2008

0830-1330: Ensembles Management Board

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Last updated 15 October, 2008