Milestones
| No. | Milestone name | Month due | Month completed |
|---|---|---|---|
| RT1 | |||
| M1.1 | Completion of the technical development needed to adapt the ENACT-based assimilation systems to the ENSEMBLES OGCMs | Feb 06 | Apr 06 |
| M1.2 | Preliminary assessment of the relative merits of the multi-model approach, the perturbed parameter approach, and the stochastic physics approach, to representing model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasts. Recommendations to the ENSEMBLES project concerning the design of the production ensemble system | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M1.3 | Preliminary assessment of the perturbed parameter approach to representing model uncertainty in centennial climate predictions. Recommendations to the ENSEMBLES project concerning the design of the production ensemble system | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M1.4 | Updated quality-controlled oceanographic database | Apr 06 | Jan 07 |
| M1.5 | ESMs fully prepared for stream 2 centennial experiments including the physical system, aerosol system and carbon cycle system, dependant on partner | Feb 07 | Mar 07 |
| M1.6 | Completion of the Stream 2 OPA/NEMO analyses and initial conditions | Jun 07 | Jul 07 |
| M1.7 | A workshop organized jointly with WGSIP (the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) will be held in Barcelona on 4-8 June 2007 to gather scientists working on seasonal-to-decadal forecasting from different continents | Aug 07 | Jun 07 |
| M1.8 | Completion
of the seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts, WP1.4/WP1.5/WP2A.1
[Interim] Joint milestone with MM2A.3 |
Aug 08 | Sep 08 |
| RT2A | Top | ||
| M2A.0.2 | 6-monthly progress report | Mar 06 | Mar 06 |
| M2A.0.3 | 6-monthly progress report | Mar 07 | Mar 07 |
| M2A.0.4 | 6-monthly
progress report (Mar 08) 6-monthly progress report (Mar 09) |
Mar 08 Mar 09 |
Mar 08 Mar 09 |
| M2A.1 | Specification of common list of fields to be stored to fulfil other RTs needs | Sep 04 | Sep 04 |
| M2A.2 | Choice of common set of forcings to be used for simulations of 20th century climate | Nov 04 | Nov 04 |
| M2A.2.2 | Provision of stream one simulations of the 20th century climate evolution on servers or on request | Aug 06 | Sep 06 |
| M2A.2.3 | Provision of all model data for the 1860-2000 stream 2 simulation to CERA database | Jun 08 | Jun 09 |
| M2A.3 | Choice of scenarios for ensemble simulations of 21st century climate | Nov 04 | Nov 04 |
| M2A.3.2 | Provision of stream one 21st century climate predictions on servers or on request | Aug 06 | Sep 06 |
| M2A.3.3 | Specification of the forcings for the 21st C. simulations in stream 2 | May 07 | Jun 07 |
| M2A.3.4 | Interim report on the impact of increased resolution on the mean climate and variability by UREADMM | Dec 07 | Feb 08 |
| M2A.3.5 | Provision of all model data for 21st century simulations to CERA database | Dec 08 | Aug 09 |
| M2A.4.2 | Final version of the public data server to disseminate seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts | Feb 09 | Apr 09 |
| RT2B | Top | ||
| M2B.1 | website: password protected and public | Nov 04 | Nov 04 |
| M2B.2 | Agreement on 20 km RCM ensembles simulations performed during months 25-36 in WP2B.1 | Feb 05 | Feb 05 |
| M2B.3 | Central server ready to host RCM output data from the RT3 and RT2B simulations | Feb 06 | Apr 06 |
| M2B.4 | Agree on scenario construction methods (including statistical downscaling methods) to be used and in which region. | Aug 05 | Aug 05 |
| M2B.5 | Completion of preliminary work on: modification of existing statistical downscaling methods for integration into the ensemble prediction system (5-year Task 2B.2.b); quantification and incorporation of uncertainties in probabilistic regional scenarios (5-year Task 2B.2.c); and, identification and evaluation of appropriate methods for scaling RCM and statistical downscaling output (5-year Task 2B.2.d) - for implementation when ENSEMBLES GCM and RCM output becomes available during later stages of the project | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M2B.6 | Agree on case-study regions, output variables, scenario formats and accompanying documentation | Aug 05 | Aug 05 |
| M2B.7 | Start of dynamical downscaling of seasonal forecasts using the RCA3 RCM | Nov 05 | Apr 06 |
| M2B.8 | Technical meeting to review state-of-art in regional scenario construction, to hold detailed technical discussions on RT2B work, and to undertake detailed planning for the intensive RT2B work to be undertaken in Years 3 and 4 | May 06 | Jun 06 |
| M2B.9 | Improved integration of work on seasonal-to-decadal and climate change timescales and enhanced communication with the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal research community, as evidenced by the production of a joint RT2B/RT6 deliverable | Aug 06 | Oct 06 |
| M2B.10 | Start running the 25km RCM simulations according to the D2B.1 plan | Sep 06 | Sep 06 |
| M2B.11 | Improved tailoring of the WP2B.2 tasks to meet application user needs, while at the same time advancing the science of probabilistic regional climate scenario construction, as evidenced by protocols for the production of software tools, together with the potential for the production of peer-reviewed scientific papers (linked to D2B.18) | Oct 07 | Nov 07 |
| M2B.12 | Communication to application users in RT6 and European stakeholders of the preliminary results from ENSEMBLES with respect to changes in regional weather and climate over Europe | Nov 07 | Sep 08 |
| M2B.13 | RT3 deliverable D3.3.1 plan available for running the second-step RT2B RCM simulations | Feb 07 | May 07 |
| M2B.14 | Start implementing the recommendations from D2B.12, D2B.14 and D2B.18 using ERA25 output (RT3 D3.1.5), observed datasets from D2B.15, and ERA40 (D2B.13) and GCM (D2B.17) derived predictors | Nov 07 | May 08 |
| M2B.15 | Start using WP2B.1 RCM output (D2B.22) to test regional scenario construction methods | Jan 08 | Feb 08 |
| M2B.16 | Start WP2B.3 application and analysis of WP2B.1 RCM output (D2B.22) | Jan 08 | Apr 08 |
| M2B.17 | Major update of the regional scenario web portal (Aug 08) Major update of the regional scenario web portal (Aug 09) |
Aug 08 Aug 09 |
Aug 08 Aug 09 |
| M2B.18 | Agreement on who will be producing probabilistic projections for which case-study regions/variables/temporal/spatial scales, how and from what GCM/RCM inputs, i.e., a detailed specification of D2B.33 outputs. | Feb 08 | Sep 08 |
| RT3 | Top | ||
| M3.0 | Establishment of RT3 website | Nov 04 | Nov 04 |
| M3.1 | Specification of non-climatic environmental changes at European level, which should be considered in hind-cast experiments | Feb 05 | Feb 05 |
| M3.2 | Not allocated | ||
| M3.3 | Final multi-model system for hindcast defined | Aug 05 | Aug 05 |
| M3.4 | Specification of pdf techniques to be tested in ensemble simulations using ERA-40 based hind-casts | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M3.5 | The ~50km RCM simulation ensemble for Europe based on ERA-40 completed | May 06 | Jun 06 |
| M3.6 | Every RCM is assigned a GCM/emission scenario member to be used as boundary/forcing conditions in RT2B. RCM scenario runs should not start before this date, nor before the 25 km RCM runs are finalised | Aug 06 | Sep 06 |
| M3.6 | Decision on the non-European area | Feb 07 | Mar 07 |
| RT4 | Top | ||
| M4.0.1 | Workshop on RT4 key issues and research priorities and specification of the RT4 coordinated experimentation. | Aug 05 | Aug 05 |
| M4.0.2 | Meeting on the progress of the coordinated time-slice experiments | Feb 07 | Jan 08 |
| M4.1.1 | Development of methodologies to explore climate feedbacks, tested initially on existing simulations, for use within the ENSEMBLES multi-model system. | Aug 05 | Aug 05 |
| M4.1.2 | Assessment of feedbacks in existing simulations to provide benchmark against which the new ENSEMBLES multi-model system can be judged | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M4.1.3 | Assessment of non-linear feedbacks in the atmosphere-land-ocean-cryosphere system in ENSEMBLES Stream 1 model in preparation for production of statement on level of understanding | Nov 07 | Apr 08 |
| M4.2.1 | Design and commence a set of co-ordinated time-slice experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of climate and its modes of variability to specific forcings (e.g. GHG) and in particular the factors that influence the ratio of land versus ocean warming under climate change | Feb 06 | Apr 06 |
| M4.2.2 | Assessment of the impact of model resolution on simulations of climate variability to guide the inclusion of higher resolution members in the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 simulations | Feb 07 | Mar 07 |
| M4.2.3 | Preliminary assessment of changes in large scale, low frequency modes of variability under anthropogenic climate change based on scenario and time slice experiments | Aug 07 | Aug 07 |
| M4.2.4 | Analysis of the land/seawarming ratio and potential processes in CMIP integration to guide further development of the coordinated experimentation | Aug 06 | Mar 07 |
| M4.2.5 | Preliminary assessment of the influence of the northern hemisphere snow cover on both extratropical (AO, NAO) and tropical (Indian monsoon) climate variability at the seasonal timescale [Note: Assessment of tropical (Indian monsoon) variability is covered under M4.4.6] | Feb 08 | Apr 08 |
| M4.3.1 | Development of statistical methodologies to explore climate variability and extreme events, tested initially on existing gridded data sets, for use with the ENSEMBLES multi-model system | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M4.3.2 | Assessment of climate variability and extreme events in existing simulations to provide benchmark against which the new ENSEMBLES multi-model system can be judged. Preliminary analysis of extremes and regimes in coupled runs completed. | Aug 06 | Oct 07 |
| M4.3.3 | Key large-scale factors for extremes explored | Dec 07 | Jan 08 |
| M4.3.5 | Mediterranean
extremes in RCM scenario runs summarised Appendix A | Appendix B | Appendix C | Appendix D | Appendix E |
Oct 08 | Feb 09 |
| M4.4.1 | Development of methodologies to explore climate variability and predictability tested initially on existing simulations for use with the ENSEMBLES multi-model system | Aug 06 | Sep 06 |
| M4.4.2 | Assessment of seasonal-to-decadal variability and predictability in existing simulations to provide benchmark against which the new ENSEMBLES multi-model system can be judged | Aug 06 | Sep 06 |
| M4.4.3 | Analysis of the impact of Intraseasonal Variability on the seasonal predictability in the Tropics against which the new ENSEMBLES multi-model system can be judged | Feb 07 | Mar 07 |
| M4.4.4 | Assessment of the importance of including variable GHGs in seasonal forecasts/hindcasts to guide construction of the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 simulations | Feb 07 | Feb 07 |
| M4.4.5 | Establish the methodologies for identifying weather/climate regimes and the linkages between the stratosphere and troposphere for use in the remainder of the project | Feb 07 | Mar 07 |
| M4.4.6 | Assessment of the influence of the northern hemisphere snow cover on both extratropical (AO, NAO) and tropical (Indian monsoon) climate predictability at the seasonal timescale [Note: Assessment of extratropical (AO, NAO) variability is covered under M4.2.5] | Aug 08 | Sep 08 |
| RT5 | Top | ||
| M5.1 | Evaluation of ERA-40 precipitation extremes in the Alpine region completed | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M5.2 | Prototype of an automatic system for forecast quality assessment of seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M5.3 | Early assessment of systematic errors in the ENSEMBLES models | Feb 06 | Jul 06 |
| M5.4 | Selection of "best performing" interpolation scheme for producing the daily gridded datasets | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M5.5 | Preliminary assessment of the Asian Summer Monsoon simulation | Feb 07 | Aug 07 |
| M5.6 | Development and testing of tier-2 validation systems for a range of application models | Feb 07 | Aug 07 |
| M5.7 | Extension of the index-flood method to transient climate model simulations available | Oct 08 | Oct 08 |
| M5.8 | Report on skill of ENSEMBLES forecasts from application perceptive (D5.29 and D5.34) | Jun 09 | Dec 09 |
| RT6 | Top | ||
| M6.1 | Completion of preparation of most impact models | Feb 06 | Feb 06 |
| M6.2 | Completion of data collection for calibration and testing of impact models and as reference data for model data. Delivery of data. | Aug 05 | Aug 05 |
| M6.3 | Preliminary definitions of impact thresholds for development of probabilistic impacts assessments, taking into account responses to mean and extreme perturbations | Feb 06 | Apr 06 |
| M6.4 | Completion of preparation of most impact models | Feb 06 | Apr 06 |
| M6.5 | Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models within ESM using DEMETER and where available the pilot ENSEMBLES system | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M6.6 | Sensitivity analysis and construction of preliminary impact response surfaces for selected impact models | Aug 06 | Sep 06 |
| M6.7 | Global evaluation of on-line and off-line vegetation models | Feb 08 | Dec 09 |
| M6.8 | Assessment of ensemble dressing methodologies | May 07 | Jul 07 |
| M6.9 | Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models using pre-production ENSEMBLES seasonal to decadal hindcasts (Revised April 09) | Dec 07 | Aug 08 |
| M6.10 | Completion of setting up of input data from ENSEMBLES model experiments
for impacts modelling. Delivery of input data. Also MM6.1 |
Feb 08 | Mar 09 |
| M6.11 | Completion of impact model calibration and validation Also MM6.2 |
Feb 08 | May 09 |
| M6.12 | Work Package 6.2 Meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results | Apr 07 | Apr 07 |
| M6.13 | Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles Prediction System (RT2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models (in line with Major Milestones 6.1 and 6.2) | Feb 08 | Mar 09 |
| M6.14 | Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models | Feb 08 | Mar 09 |
| RT7 | Top | ||
| M7.1 | Completion of the emissions and land use scenarios with and without climate change policy. | Oct 06 | Oct 07 |
| M7.2 | Completion of the modelling tools to test the sensitivity of scenarios to climate change | Feb 06 | Mar 06 |
| M7.3 | Completion of the scenarios sensitivity tests and delivery of the perturbed scenarios | Feb 08 | Jun 08 |
| M7.4 | Delivery of the climate change impacts of morbidity and mortality | Oct 06 | Oct 07 |
| M7.5 | Delivery of the climate change impacts on economic productivity | Feb 06 | Feb 06 |
| RT8 | Top | ||
| M8.1 | Assessment of progress and quality of Internet-based information, implementation of suggested modifications | Aug 05 | Oct 06 |
| M8.2 | Publicity leaflet and associated web pages | Feb 05 | Feb 05 |
| M8.3 | Internet webpages aimed at the general public highlighting the advances in knowledge on climatic change, climate modelling and the impacts of climate change. To be regularly updated to integrate new material emerging from ENSEMBLES-based research. [Merged with M8.4] | Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 |
Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 |
| M8.4 | Similar website as M8.3 but on a more detailed (advanced) level for scientists from non-ENSEMBLES research groups. Again with a yearly update. [Merged with M8.3] | Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 |
Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 |
| M8.6 | Assessment of progress and quality of published material based on ENSEMBLES work, implementation of suggested modifications (also MM8.2). | Aug 07 | Aug 07 |
| M8.7 | Evaluation of workshop outputs, improvements in inter-disciplinary exchange within the ENSEMBLES community. | Aug 06 Aug 07 |
Aug 06 Aug 07 |
| M8.8 | Assessment of PhD short courses and training programs. Modification
of concept if required. On a yearly basis. Testing of training module on "air quality-climate interactions" using Smart Board technology during joint ACCENT/ENSEMBLES Next Generation Summit in Switzerland (July 2008). |
Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Oct 08 |
Aug 08 Oct 08 |
