ENSEMBLES_papers

ENSEMBLES Published Papers

This page contains a list of papers published as part of the ENSEMBLES project as a useful source of reference for ENSEMBLES participants and other interested scientists. Please email ensemblesfp6@metoffice.gov.uk if you have any additions to this list.

Please also add your papers to the wiki publications page

Quick links
General papers
Global modelling
Regional modelling
Understanding processes
Impacts
Scenarios
Papers from Ensembles-related projects

General Papers (including RT0 and RT8)

RT0

Hewitt, C.D., 2005: The ENSEMBLES Project: Providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Published article appears in the EGGS newsletter, 13, 22-25. http://www.the-eggs.org/?issueSel=24
Hewitt, C.D., 2005: ENSEMBLES – providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Published article appears in Parliament Magazine, 11 July 2005, p. 57.
Hewitt, C.D and Griggs, D.J., 2004: Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Published article appears in Eos, 85, 566.
van der Linden, P.J. 2008: The ENSEMBLES climate change project, chapter in AGRIDEMA. Nova Publishing Ltd, New York, USA, 500pp.

RT8

Beniston, M., 2008: Decadal-scale changes in the tails of probability distribution functions of climate variables in Switzerland, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.1793
Beniston, M., 2008: Trends in joint quantiles of temperature and precipitation in Europe since 1901 and projected for 2100, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, doi:10.1029/2008GL037119, 2009
Beniston, M., 2005: August 2005 intense rainfall event in Switzerland: Not necessarily an analog for strong convective events in a greenhouse climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025573.

Global modelling (RT1 and RT2A)

RT1

Alexander, L.V., X. Zhang, T.C. Peterson, J. Caesar, B.Gleason, A. Klein Tank, M. Haylock, D. Collins, B. Trewin, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Tagipour, P. Ambenje, K. Rupa Kumar, J. Revadekar, G. Griffiths, L. Vincent, D.B. Stephenson, J. Burn, E. Aguilar, M. Brunet, M. Taylor, M. New, P. Zhai, M. Rusticucci, J.L. Vazquez-Aguirre, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), Vol. 111, D05109.
Arzel O., Fichefet T., Goosse H.; (2006): Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modelling, 12, 412-427.
Berner, Judith, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Palmer, Tim N., Shutts, Glenn, Weisheimer, Antje, (2008): Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 366, 2561-2579, 10.1098/rsta.2008.0033
Collins, M., (2007): Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2068)
Collins, M., B.B.B. Booth, G.R. Harris, J.M. Murphy, D.M.H. Sexton, and M.J. Webb, 2005: Towards Quantifying Uncertainty in Transient Climate Change. Climate Dynamics, vol 27, nos 2-3, 127-147, 10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0.
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J.M. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith and T.N. Palmer (2009). Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135, 1538-1559, doi:10.1002/qj.464.
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T.N.: Decadal hindcasts with an initialised coupled atmosphere-ocean model: First results from the ECMWF ENSEMBLES contribution. EMS 2008, Amsterdam, 29 September-3 October 2008.
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Seasonal-to-interannual dynamical prediction of large-scale climate modes. EGU 2008, Vienna, 13-18 April 2008.
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.: Error, accuracy and reliability in seasonal-to-interannual forecasts. EGU 2008, Vienna, 13-18 April 2008.
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Coelho, Caio A. S., Stephenson, David B., (2008): How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality? Meteorological Applications, 15, 155-162
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., R. Hagedorn and T.N. Palmer, 2006: Developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting relevant to agricultural management. Climate Research , 33, 19-26.
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., R. Hagedorn, T.N. Palmer and J.-J. Morcrette, 2006: Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters , 33, L07708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025061.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Goodess, C. M., 2005: Working paper on the need for downscaling of seasonal-to-decadal integrations within the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project. Ensembles Technical Report 2. ISSN 1752-2854. http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/tech_reports.html. 10 pp.
Douville H. (2006) Impact of regional SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon response to global warming in the CNRM climate model. J Climate, 19, 2008-2024.
Douville, H. 2005: Limitations of time-slice experiments for predicting regional climate change over South Asia. Climate Dynamics, 24, 373-391, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0509-7.
Frame, D. The climateprediction.net BBC Climate Change Experiment Part 1: Design of the Coupled Model Ensemble. Submitted to Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A.
Frame, D.J., Faull, N.E., Joshi, M.M. and Allen, M.R. 2007. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 1971-1992.
Frame, D.J., B.B.B. Booth, J.A. Kettleborough, D.A. Stainforth, J.M. Gregory, M. Collins, and M.R. Allen, 2005: Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L09702,doi:10.1029/2004GL022241.
Good P. and J.A. Lowe (2006): Emergent behaviour and uncertainty in multi-model climate projections of precipitation trends at small spatial scales. J. of Climate (in press)
Harris, G. R., D. M. H. Sexton, B. B. B. Booth, M. Collins, J. M. Murphy and M. J. Webb: Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation models. Climate Dynamics, Submitted.
Huebener, H., Cubasch, U., Langematz, U., Spangehl, T., Nierhorster, F., Fast, I. and Kunze, M. Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere General Circulation Model (GCM). Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2078)
Huebener H., Cubasch U., Langematz U., Spangehl T., Niehoerster F., Fast I., Kunze M.;(2006): Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-tropospherestratosphere GCM; Submitted to Phil.Trans. Royal Society Series A, 06.07.2006
Joly M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville, P. Terray, J-F. Royer, 2006: African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs in a set of IPCC4 coupled models. Climate Dyn. (revised)
Mason, S. and Weigel, A.P., 2008: A Generic Forecast Verification Framework for Administrative Purposes, Monthly Weather Review, 137, DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2553.1
McLaren, A.J., H. T. Banks, C. F. Durman, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, A.B. Keen, J. K. Ridley, M. J. Roberts, W. H. Lipscomb, W. M. Connolley, and S. W. Laxon, 2006. Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1). Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, C12014, doi:10.1029/2005JC003033.
Murphy, J. M., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. and Webb, M. 2007. A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 1993-2028. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077)
Palmer, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Weisheimer, A., Rodwell,M., (2008): Towards "seamless" prediction: Calibration of climate-change projections using seasonal forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 459-470
Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2007): Seasonal Forecast Datasets – A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections? CLIVAR Exchanges, 43, 6-7
Palmer, T.N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, and A. Weisheimer (2005). Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1750.
Ringer, M.A., B.J. McAvaney, N. Andronova, L.E. Buja, M. Esch, W.J. Ingram, B. Li, J. Quaas, E. Roeckner, C.A. Senior, B.J. Soden, E.M. Volodin, M.J. Webb and K.D. Williams, 2006: "Global mean cloud feedbacks in idealized climate change experiments". GRL (in press).
Rodwell, M. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes, 2006: Predictability and prediction of European monthly to seasonal climate anomalies. Journal of Climate http://www.ucm.es/info/climast/paco/abstr/jcli06_2.htm, 19, 6025-6046.
Salas y Mélia D., Chauvin F., Déqué M., Douville H., Guérémy J.F., Marquet P., Planton S., Royer J.F., Tyteca S. ; (2005) : Description and validation of CNRM-CM3 global coupled climate model, Note de Centre du GMGEC N°103, décembre 2005. Submitted to Climate Dynamics. (Available from http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/scenario2004/paper_cm3.pdf )
Semenov, M. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes 2007: Utility of dynamical seasonal forecasts in predicting crop yield. Climate Research http://www.ucm.es/info/climast/paco/abstr/cr07_1.htm, 34, 71-81.
Seneviratne, S. I., Lüthi, D., Litschi, M. and Schär, C. 2006. Land-atmosphere interactions and climate change in Europe. Nature, in press. doi:10.1038/nature05095.
Shutts, G., Allen, T. and Berner, J. (2008): Stochastic parametrization of multiscale processes using a dual-grid approach. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 366, 2625-2641, doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0035.
Smith, D. M. and J. M. Murphy, 2007: An objective ocean temperature and salinity analysis using covariances from a global climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C02022, doi:10.1029/2005JC003172
Smith, D.M., Cusack, S., Colman, A.W., Folland, C.K. and J.M. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799.
Sorteberg A., Katsov V., Walsh J., Palova T.; (2006): The Arctic surface energy budget as simulated with the IPCC AR4 AOGCMs, Clim. Dynamics, accepted
Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Tredger, E.R., and Smith, L.A. 2007. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate prediction. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 21452161.
Stott P. A., Jones G. S., Lowe J. A., Thorne P. W., Durman C. F., Johns T. C., Thelen J.-C.; (2006) Transient simulations with the HadGEM1 climate model: causes of past warming and future climate change. J. Climate, Vol. 19, No. 12, pages 2763-2782.
Thomson, M.C., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, S.J. Mason, R. Hagedorn, S.J. Connor, T. Phindela, A.P. Morse and T.N. Palmer, 2006: Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature http://www.ucm.es/info/climast/paco/abstr/nat06_1.htm, 439, 576-579.
Troccoli, A. and Palmer, T. N. Ensemble decadal prediction from analysed initial conditions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2079)
van Oldenborgh, G.J., Coelho, C., Doblas-Reyes, F.J.: Exploratory analysis and verification of seasonal forecasts with the KNMI Climate Explorer. EMS 2008, Amsterdam, 29 September-3 October 2008.
Ulbrich, U., G.C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, J.G. Pinto and M. Reyers, 2006: Northern hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 10717, 2006, SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU06A-107177 http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/10717/EGU06-J-10717-1.pdf
Vitart, F., M.R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T.N. Palmer, T.N. Stockdale, M.K. Davey, S. Ineson and A. Weisheimer (2007): Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740.
Webb, M.J., Senior, C.A., Sexton, D.M.H., Ingram, W.J., Williams, K.D., Ringer, M.A., McAvaney, B.J., Colman, R., Soden, B.J., Gudgel, R., Knutson, T., Emori, S., Ogura, T., Tsushima, Y., Andronova, N., Li, B., Musat, I., Bony, S., Taylor, K.E., 2006: "On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles". Climate Dynamics 04 February, 2006 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0111-2
Weisheimer, A., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel (2009), ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions — Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896. Please note that this paper is published with a free access option so that everybody can read and download the paper plus the supplementary material.
Weisheimer, A., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Palmer, T.N: Seasonal prediction of extreme European climate: Case studies of the summer 2003 and the winter 2005/06. EMS 2008, Amsterdam, 29 September-3 October 2008.
Weigel, A.P., Liniger, M.A., Appenzeller, C., 2008: "Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts: Are Recalibrated Single Models Better than Multimodels?", Monthly Weather Review, 137, 1460–1479
Weigel, A.P., Bowler, N.E., 2009: Notes and Correspondence Comment on ‘Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?’, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135, DOI: 10.1002/qj.381
Weigel A.P., Liniger M.A., Appenzeller C., 2006: The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev. (accepted)

RT2A

Bechtold, P., M. Koehler, T. Jung, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Leutbecher, M.J. Rodwell, F. Vitart and G. Balsamo (2008). Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134, 1337-1351.
Bengtsson L., Hodges K.I., Roeckner E.; (2006): Storm tracks and climate change, J. Climate (in press)
Brasseur G.P., Roeckner E.; (2005): Impact of improved air quality on the future evolution of climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, L23704, doi:10.1029/2005GL023902
Casado, M.J., Pastor, M.A. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2008). Euro-Atlantic circulation types and modes of variability in winter. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 94, 10.1007/s00704-008-0036-2.
Chauvin F., S. Denvil : Changes in severe indices as simulated by two French coupled global climate models. Global and Planetary Change 57, 96-117
Crueger T., E. Roeckner, T. Raddatz, R. Schnur, P. Wetzel (2008), Ocean dynamics determine the response of oceanic CO2-uptake to climate change. Clim. Dyn., 31, 151–168. doi 10.1007/s00382–007–0342-x
Douville H.; (2006): Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02701, DOI:10.1029/2005GL024967
Douville H., Salas-Mélia D., Tyteca S.; (2006): On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming. Climate Dyn. 26(4):367-385 ( DOI 10.1007/s00282-005-0088-2)
Good P. and J.A. Lowe (2006): Emergent behaviour and uncertainty in multi-model climate projections of precipitation trends at small spatial scales. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 21, pages 5554-5569.
Guemas and Salas-Mélia (2007): Simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in an Atmosphere-Ocean Global Coupled Model: Part II: Weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism, submitted to Climate Dynamics.
Hagemann, S., D. Jacob, P. Lorenz, H. Goettel, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Projected changes of the hydrological cycle over large European catchments as simulated by the MPI-M global and regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0403-9
Ingleby, B. and M. Huddleston (2007): Quality control of ocean temperature and salinity profiles: historical and real-time data. Journal of Marine Systems, 65, 158-175.
Lowe, J.A., C.D. Hewitt, D.P. van Vuuren, T.C. Johns, E. Stehfest, J-F. Royer, P.J. van der Linden, 2008: Will aggressive mitigation of emissions really avoid dangerous climate change? Eos, submitted.May, W., 2008: Climatic changes associated with a global "2 ºC-stabilization" scenario simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 31, 283-313.
McLaren, A.J., H.T. Banks, C.F. Durman, J.M. Gregory, T.C. Johns, A.B. Keen, J.K. Ridley, M.J. Roberts, W. H. Lipscomb, W. M. Connolley, and S. W. Laxon, 2006. Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1) Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, C12014, doi:10.1029/2005JC003033
Müller, W. and E. Roeckner (2007): ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Climate Dynamics (submitted)
Müller W.A., Roeckner E.; (2006): ENSO impact on mid-latitude circulation patterns in future climate change projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05711, doi:10.1029/2005GL025032
Roeckner E., Stier P., Feichter J., Kloster S., Esch M., Fischer-Bruns I.; (2006): Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0147-3
Royer J.F., F. Chauvin, A. Biaou, D. Schertzer, S. Lovejoy , 2008 : Multifractal analysis of the evolution of simulated precipitation over France in a climate scenario. C. R. Geoscience 340, 431-440, Doi : 10.1016/j.crte.2008.05.002
Sillmann, J. and E. Roeckner (2007): Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change (in press)
Weisheimer, A., F. Doblas-Reyes, P. Rogel, N. Keenlyside, M. Balmaseda, J. Murphy, D. Smith, M. Collins, B. Bhaskaran, and T. Palmer (2007). Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project. ECMWF Tech. Memo., 521.
Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2005). Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20721, doi:10.1029/2005GL023365.

Regional modelling (RT2B and RT3)

RT2B

Busuioc, A, Giorgi, F, Bi, X and Ionita, M., 2006: Comparison of regional climate model and statistical downscaling simulations of different winter precipitation change scenarios over Romania. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 86, 101-123, DOI 10.1007/S00704-0050210-8.
Busuioc, A., Tomozeiu, R. and Cacciamani, C., 2007: Statistical downscaling model for winter extreme precipitation events in Emilia-Romagna region. International Journal of Climatology, in press.
Cofiño, A.S., San-Martín, D., Gutiérrez, J.M. (2007) A web portal for regional projection of weather forecast using GRID middleware. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 4489, 82-89.
Graczyk, G., Szwed, M. & Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2006) Thermal seasons in Poland - observations and projections. In: Natural Systems and Global Change. Eds. Z. W. Kundzewicz & F. F. Hattermann, Research Center for Agricultural and Forest Environment of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan: 49-63.
Gutiérrez, J.M., Primo, C., Rodríguez M.A., Fernández, J. (2008) Spatiotemporal characterization of Ensemble Prediction Systems – the Mean-Variance of Logarithms (MVL) diagram. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15, 109-114.
Hewitt, CD, Goodess, CM and Betts, RA, 2007: Probabilistic scenarios of climate change for municipal engineering. Submitted to Municipal Engineer.
Jönsson, A.M., Harding, S., Bärring., L and Ravn, H.P. 2007: Impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in southern Sweden. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 146, 70-81.
Kundzewicz Z.W. 2008: Konsekwencje globalnych zmian klimatu (in Polish; English title: Consequences of global climate changes). Nauka 1/2008, 103-118
Kundzewicz Z.W., Szwed M., Pinskwar I., Radziejewski M. 2007: Global change and extreme hydrological events. Papers on Global Change, 14, 79-93.
Kundzewicz, Z.W. (2007) Climate change impacts on water management and adaptation needs in Europe. In: Climate Change Impacts on Water Cycle, Resources and Quality, Publications of European Communities, Luxembourg.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Radziejewski, M. (2006) Methodologies for trend detection. In: Climate Variability and Change - Hydrological Impacts (edited by Demuth, S., Gustard, A., Planos, E., Scatena, F. & Servat, E.). IAHS Publication 308, IAHS Press, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, 538-550.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2007) River floods and their impacts in the changing climate - integrated view. IPCC TGICA Expert Meeting "Integrating Analysis of Regional Climate change and Response Options", Nadi, Fiji, 20-22 June 2007, Meeting Materials and Extended Abstracts and Papers, 105-111.
Leckebusch, G.C., B. Koffi, U. Ulbrich, J.G. Pinto, T. Spangehl and S. Zacharias, 2006: European winter storms and their modification under climate change from a multi-model perspective. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 01945, 2006, SRef-ID: 16077962/gra/EGU06-A-01945. http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01945/EGU06-J01945.pdf
Leckebusch, G.C., B. Koffi, U. Ulbrich, J. Pinto, T. Spangehl, S. Zacharias, 2006: Analysis of frequency and intensity of winter storm events in Europe on synoptic and regional scales from a multi-model perspective. Climate Research, 31, 59-74
Malmgren, K. 2007: Barkborrar sprider sig i varmare klimat, Skogseko nr 3 2007 ('Barkbeetles in a warmer climate', A.M. Jönsson interviewed in a newspaper distributed to Swedish forest owners)
Mares, C., Mares, I. and Stanciu, P., 2007: Extreme value analysis in the Danube lower basin discharge time series in the 20th century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, in press.
Pavan, V., Tomozeiu, R., Cacciamani, C. and Di Lorenzo, M. 2008: 'Daily precipitation observations over Emilia-Romagna: mean values and extremes', Int. J. of Climatol., 2008, 28, DOI:0.1002/joc.1694
Pinskwar, I., Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Radziejewski, M. (2006) Too much water - too little water: precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. In: Natural Systems and Global Change. Eds. Z. W. Kundzewicz & F. F. Hattermann, Research Center for Agricultural and Forest Environment of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan:18-27.
Pinto, J.G., U. Ulbrich, G.C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, M. Reyers, S. Zacharias, 2007: Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0230-4.
Smith, B., Aasa, A., Ahas, R., Blenckner, T., Callaghan, T., de Chazal, J., Humborg, C., Jönsson, A.M., Kellomäki, S., Kull, A., Lehikoinen, E., Mander, Ü., Nòges, P., Nòges, T., Rounsevell, M., Sofiev, M., Tryjanowski, P. & Wolf, A. 2007: Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. In: Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. BACC Author Group, Springer Verlag. pp. 221-308.
Somot S. , Sevault F., Déqué M., Crépon M. (2007) 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model. Global and Planetary Change (accepted) Pavan V, Tomozeiu R., Cacciamani C., and M. Di Lorenzo Daily precipitation observations over Emilia-Romagna: mean values and extremes (2007) Submitted to Int.J. Climatol.
Stephenson, D., Pavan, V., Collins, M., Junge, M., Quadrelli, R. North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2, multi-model assessment. Climate Dyn., 2006, 27,401-420
Ulbrich, U., J.G. Pinto, H. Kupfer, G.C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, M. Reyers, 2007: Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations. J. Climate, vol 21, no. 8, 1669-1679. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1992.1
Vajda and Venäläinen, 2005. Feedback processes between climate, surface and vegetation at the northern climatological tree-line (Finnish Lapland). Boreal Environment Research, in press.

RT3

Boberg, F., P. Berg, P. Thejll, W.J. Gutowski,and J.H. Christensen, 2008: Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble, Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0446-y.
Boberg, F., P. Berg, P. Thejll and J.H. Christensen. Analysis of temporal changes in precipitation intensities using PRUDENCE data. DKC Report 07-03
Kendon, E.J., D.P. Rowell, R.G. Jones (2009), Mechanisms and reliability of future changes in daily precipitation (submitted to Climate Dynamics
Kendon, E.J., D.P. Rowell, R.G. Jones and E. Buonomo, Robustness of future changes in local precipitation extremes, Journal of Climate Vol 21 Issue 17, pp 4280-4297
Kjellström, E., 2007. Evaluating regional climate model simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the ENSEMBLES project. EGU2008-A-02262. Abstracts of the contributions of the EGU General Assembly 2008. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 10. ISSN: 1029-7006.
Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Samuelsson, P., Rummukainen, M., Ullerstig, A., Willén U. and Wyser, K., 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology 108, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp.
Kostopoulou E, Tolika K, Tegoulias I, Giannakopoulos C, Somot S, Anagnostopoulou C and Maheras P (2009) Evaluation of a Regional Climate Model using in-situ temperature observations over the Balkan Peninsula. Tellus A, 61: 357-370
Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., 2008: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geoscience 1, 511-514, doi:10.1038/ngeo262
Lenderink, G., van Ulden, A., van den Hurk, B., Keller, F. A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands, Clim. Dyn., 2007, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0227-z.
Rummukainen, M., C. Hewitt and D. Jacob, 2007. The ENSEMBLES and the BALTEX projects. In: H.-J. Isemer (ed): Fifth Study Conference on BALTEX, Kuressaare, Saaremaa, Estonia, 4-8 June 2007. Conference Proceedings. International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 38, 50-51.

Understanding processes (RT4) and evaluation (RT5)

RT4

Alessandri A., S. Gualdi, J. Polcher, and A. Navarra, 2007: Effects of Land-Surface-Vegetation on the boreal summer surface climate of a GCM. J. Climate, 20, 255-278.
Arzel, O., T. Fichefet, H. Goosse and J-L. Dufresne (2007): Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the 20th and 21st centuries in an AOGCM, Climate Dynamics, 30(1): 37-58, DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5, 2008
Bellucci A., S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra, 2009: The double-ITCZ syndrome in coupled general circulation models: the role of large-scale vertical circulation regimes J. Climate, submitted
Bellucci A., S. Gualdi, E. Scoccimarro and A. Navarra, 2008: NAO-Ocean Circulation Interactions in a Coupled General Circulation Model. Clim. Dyn., 31, 759-777.
Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. Keenlyside, L. Kornblueh, J.-J. Luo and T. Yamagata (2007): How may Tropical Cyclones Change in a Warmer Climate? Tellus, 59A, 539 561
Beniston, M., 2007: Entering into the "greenhouse century": recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate. Geophysical Research Letters, in press.
Beniston, M., and Goyette, S., 2007: Changes in variability and persistence of climate in Switzerland; exploring 20th century observations and 21st century simulations. Global and Planetary Change, 57, 1-20.
Beniston, M, (2006): August 2005 intense rainfall event in Switzerland: Not necessarily an analog for strong convective events in a greenhouse climate. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L5701.
Beniston, M., and D.B. Stephenson, 2004: Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions, Global and Planetary Change, 44, 1-9.
Boé, J., and L. Terray (2008), Uncertainties in summer evapotranspiration changes over Europe and implications for regional climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05702, doi:10.1029/2007GL032417.
Bony, S., R. Colman, V.M. Kattsov, R.P. Allan, C.S. Bretherton, J.-L. Dufresne, A. Hall, S. Hallegatte, M.M. Holland, W. Ingram, D.A. Randall, B.J. Soden, G. Tselioudis, M.J. Webb (2006): How Well do we Understand and Evaluate Climate Change Feedback Processes? J. of Clim., Vol. 19, No. 15, pages 3445-3482
Busuioc, A., R. Tomozeiu and C. Cacciamani: Statistical downscaling model for winter extreme precipitation events in the Emilia-Romagna region", International Journal of Climatology, (waiting for editor decision).
Carril A., S. Gualdi, A. Cherchi and A. Navarra, 2007: Heatwaves in Europe: Areas of homogeneous variability and links with the regional to large-scale atmospheric and SSTs anomalies. Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0274-5
Cherchi A. and A Navarra, 2007: Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to the horizontal resolution: differences between AMIP-type and coupled model experiments. Clim. Dyn., 28, 273-290.
Coelho, C. A. S., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B. and Steinskog, D. J.: 2007, Exploratory tools for the analysis of extreme climate and weather events in gridded datasets, Journal of Climate, In revision.
Coelho C.A.S., D.B. Stephenson, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, A. Guetter and G.J. van Oldenborgh, 2006: A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America. Meteorological Applications http://www.ucm.es/info/climast/paco/abstr/metapp06_1.htm, 13, 73-82.
Conil S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2007a) The relative roles of soil moisture and SST in climate variability explored within ensembles of AMIP-type simulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 125-145.
Conil S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2008) Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to the boreal summer climate predictability Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0375-9
Douville H., S. Conil, S. Tyteca, A. Voldoire (2007) Soil moisture memory and West African monsoon predictability: artefact or reality ? Clim.Dyn., 28, 723-742.
Dufresne, J-L. and S. Bony (2008). Relative contribution of the different radiative feedbacks to global warming in equilibrium and transient climate change simulations. J. Climate Vol 21 No 19 p. 5135-5144, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2239.1
Dufresne J.-L., J. Quaas, O. Boucher, S. Denvil, L. Fairhead, 2005: Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol 32, No 21, L21703, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023619
Duvel, J.P., H. Bellenger, P.K. Xavier, and F.Doblas-Reyes: Air-Sea Process in the Indian Ocean and the Intraseasonal Oscillation. Proceedings from ECMWF Workshop on Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction, 10-12 November 2008
Ferro, C.A.T., A. Hannachi, and D.B. Stephenson, 2005: Simple non-parametric techniques for exploring changing probability distributions of weather, J. Climate, 18, 4344-4354.
Gualdi S., E. Scoccimarro, and A. Navarra, 2007: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. J. Clim., in revision.
Guemas and Salas-Mélia (2007a): Simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in an Atmosphere-Ocean Global Coupled Model: Part I: A mechanism governing the variability of ocean convection in a preindustrial experiment, submitted to Clim. Dyn.
Guemas and Salas-Mélia (2007b): Simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in an Atmosphere-Ocean Global Coupled Model: Part II: Weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism, submitted to Clim. Dyn.
Hatzaki, M., Flocas, H.A., Giannakopoulos, C., Maheras, P., 2008: Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern: Impact on Mediterranean climate. Journal of Climate (under revision).
Hawkins E. and R. T. Sutton, 2008: Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, GRL, 35, L11603, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034059
Hawkins, E and R. Sutton (2007): Variability of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, doi 10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8
Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner (2008): Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84-88.
Krinner, G., O. Magand, I. Simmonds, C. Genthon, and J.-L. Dufresne, (2007): Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the 20th and 21st centuries. Clim. Dyn. , 28 (2-3), pp. 215-230, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0177-x
Kucharski F. et al., 2007: Low-frequency variability of the Indian Monsoon-ENSO relation and the Tropical Atlantic: The 'weakening' of the '80s and '90s', J. Climate, 20, 42554266.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Radziejewski M. & Pinskwar, I. (2006) Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. Climate Research, 31, 51-58.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. (200?) Intense precipitation and high flows - observations and projections. In: Kropp, J. (ed.) Extremes, Trends and Scaling in Hydrometeorology, Springer (submitted).
Latif, M. M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, (2006): A Review of Predictability Studies of Atlantic Sector Climate on Decadal Time-Scales. J. Climate, 19 (23), 59715987.
Latif, M., C. Böning, J. Willebrand, A. Biastoch, J. Dengg, N. Keenlyside, U. Schweckendiek and G. Madec (2006): Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing? J. Climate, 19 (18), 4631-4637.
Latif, M., N. Keenlyside, and J. Bader (2007): Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and hurricane development. Geophys. Res. Lett., L01710, doi:10.1029/2006GL027969.
Li, Y., R.-Y., Lu, and B.-W. Dong , 2007: The ENSO - Asian Monsoon Interaction in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM. J. Climate, in press.
Liniger, M.A., H. Mathis, C. Appenzeller and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2007). Realistic greenhouse gas forcing and seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L04705, doi:10.1029/2006GL028335.
Lu, R.-Y.,Y. Li and and B.-W. Dong, 2007. East Asian precipitation increase under the global warming J. Korean Met. Soc., 43, 267-272.
McGregor, G.R., C.A.T. Ferro, and D.B. Stephenson, 2005: Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events in Europe. In: Kirch W, Menne B, Bertollini R (Eds.), Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Public Health Responses. Dresden, Springer, 13-23. 303pp
Navarra A., S. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Behera, J-J Luo, S. Masson, E. Guilyardi, P. Delecluse, and T. Yamagata, 2007: Atmospheric horizontal resolution affects tropical climate variability in coupled models. J. Climate, vol 21 issue 4, 730-750
Oikonomou C., Flocas, H.A., Hatzaki, M., Assimakopoulos, D.N., Gianakopoulos, C., 2007: Future changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Eastern Mediterranean, 10th Conference on Environmental Science and Technology. Cos, Greece, 3-5 September 2007,A1053-1060.
Oldenborgh, G.J. van, How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe? Climate of the Past Disc., 2007, 3, 811-837, sref:1814-9359/cpd/2007-3-811.
Osborne, T.M., D.M. Lawrence, A.J. Challinor, J.M. Slingo and T.R. Wheeler, 2007: Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model, Global Change Biology, 13, 169-183
Panja, D. and F.M. Selten, 2007: Extreme Associated Functions: Optimally Linking Local Extremes to Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Structures, submitted for publication in J. Climate. Available online at http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.3366
Pinskwar, I., Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Radziejewski M. (2006) Too much - too little: precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. In: Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Hattermann, F. F. (eds) Natural Systems and Global Change (in press).
Radziejewski, M. (200?) Trend detection in river flow extremes. In: Kropp, J. (ed.) Extremes, Trends and Scaling in Hydrometeorology, Springer (submitted).
Rousi E., (2008): Study of the Temperature in the Mediterranean using RCM data. M. Sc. Thesis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, pp120 (in Greek).
Sanchez-Gomez, E., L. Terray and B. Joly, 2007: Intra-seasonal atmospheric variability. and the extreme precipitation events on the Mediterranean basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted.
Steinskog, D. J.,:Applications of extreme value theory in temperature records in Extra-tropical and Arctic Regions PhD Thesis, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen
Stoffel M., and M. Beniston, (2006): On the incidence of debris flows in the Swiss Alps since the early Little Ice Age and in a future climate. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L16404.
Sutton, R. T., B.-W. Dong, and J. M. Gregory, 2007: Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02701, doi:10.1029/2006GL028164.
Tolika K., E. Kostopoulou, I. Tegoulias, Chr. Anagnostopoulou and P. Maheras: 2008. Future projections of extreme rainfall and temperature conditions over the Mediterranean Region: Scenarios from three updated regional climate models. Proceedings of the 9th Conference of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, Thessaloniki 28-31 May 2008, 505-512. (in Greek).
Tolika, K., Chr. Anagnostopoulou, P. Maheras and H. Kutiel: 2007. Extreme precipitation related to circulation types in the Eastern Mediterranean. In revision.
Vitart, F. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2007). Impact of an increase of greenhouse gas concentrations during the past 50 years on tropical storms in a coupled GCM. Tellus A, 59, 417-427.
Williams, K.D., Ringer, M.A., Senior, C.A., Webb, M.J., McAvaney, B.J., Andronova, N., Bony, S., Dufresne, J-L., Emori, S., Gudgel, R., Knutson, T., Li, B., Lo, K., Musat, I., Wegner, J., Slingo, A., Mitchell, J.F.B., 2006: "Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models". Climate Dynamics 26, 2-3 (145-165) DOI: 10.1007/s00382-005-0067-7
Xavier, P.K., J.P. Duvel, P. Braconnot and F.J. Doblas-Reyes, 2009: An evaluation metric for intraseasonal variability in climate models. Submitted to J. Climate.
Xavier, P.K., J.P. Duvel, and F.J. Doblas-Reyes, 2008: Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in Coupled Seasonal Hindcasts. J. Climate, 21, 44774497.
Xavier, P.K., J.P. Duvel and F.J. Doblas-Reyes, 2007: Representation of the tropical intraseasonal variability and its impact on seasonal predictability in a multi-model ensemble. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 522.

RT5

Alessandri A., S. Gualdi, J. Polcher, and A. Navarra, 2007: Effects of Land-Surface-Vegetation on the boreal summer surface climate of a GCM. J. Climate, 20, 255-278.
Beniston, M., 2005: Warm winter spells in the Swiss Alps: Strong heat waves in a cold season? A study focusing on climate observations at the Saentis high mountain site. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL021478.
Braconnot, P., Hourdin, F., Bony, S., Dufresne, J. L., Grandpeix, J. Y., and Marti, O.: Impact of Different Convective Cloud Schemes on the Simulation of the Tropical Seasonal Cycle in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, Clim. Dyn., 29, 501-520, 2007.
Busuioc, A., F. Giorgi, X. Bi and M. Ionita, 2006: Comparison of regional climate model and statistical downscaling simulations of different winter precipitation change scenarios over Romania. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 86,101-120
Cherchi, A and A. Navarra, 2007: Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to the horizontal resolution: Differences between AMIP-type and coupled model experiments, Climate Dynamics, 28, 273-290.
Cherchi A., S. Gualdi, S. Behera, J-J Luo, S. Masson, T. Yamagata, and A. Navarra, 2007: The influence of Tropical Indian Ocean SST on the Indian summer monsoon. J of Climate, 20, 3083-3105
Dufresne, J-L. and S. Bony (2008). Relative contribution of the different radiative feedbacks to global warming in equilibrium and transient climate change simulations. J. Climate Vol 21 No 19 p. 5135-5144, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2239.1
Dufresne, J.-L. and S. Bony, 2008 : An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates from coupled atmosphere-ocean models. J. Climate, accepted, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2239.1
Dufresne J.-L., J. Quaas, O. Boucher, S. Denvil, L. Fairhead, 2005: Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol 32, No 21, L21703, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023619
Fischer, E. M. , S.I. Seneviratne, P.L. Vidale, D. Lüthi and C. Schär, 2007: Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave, J. Climate ; 20 (20) ; 5081-5099.
Graczyk, D., Szwed, M. & Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2006) Thermal seasons in Poland - observations and projections. In: Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Hattermann, F. F. (eds) Natural Systems and Global Change (in press).
Hanel, M., T. A. Buishand, and C. A. T. Ferro (2009), A nonstationary index flood model for precipitation extremes in transient regional climate model simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D15107, doi:10.1029/2009JD011712
Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones, M. New. 2007: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation (in prep).
Klok, E.J. and A.M.G. Klein Tank. 2007: Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. Accepted by Int.J.Climatol.
Kostopoulou, E., C. Giannakopoulos, C.Anagnostopoulou, K.Tolika, P.,Maheras, M.Vafiadis, D.Founda. (2007) "Simulating maximum and minimum temperature over Greece: a comparison of three downscaling techniques" Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 90: 65–82
Lee-Drbohlav, H.-K., S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra, 2007: A Diagnostic Study of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode in El Nino and Non-El Nino Years. J. Climate, 20, 2961-2977
Thomson, Madeleine, Ricardo Garcia Herrera and Martin Beniston (Eds.): 2008. Seasonal forecasts, Climatic Change and Human Health. Springer.
Zacharias, S., Fink, A., Leckebusch, G.C., Pinto, J.G. and Ulbrich, U., 2006: Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the development of extreme cyclones over Europe. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 07183, 2006, SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU06A-07183 http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/07183/EGU06-J-07183.pdf

Impacts (RT6)

Benito Garcia-Morales, M. and Dubus, L. 2006 : Forecasting precipitations for hydroelectric power management: how to exploit GCM's seasonal ensemble forecasts ? Int. Journal. of Climatology. (submitted and in revision)
Bondeau, A., Smith, P., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., Smith, B. 2007. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology 13, 679 706.
Bröcker, J, Smith, LA (2007) Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: On the Importance of Being Proper Weather and Forecasting 22 (2), 382-388
Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Ferro C.A.T. and Stephenson D.B. (2007). Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 119, 190-204.
Della-Marta, P. and Pinto, J.G, (2009): Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L14703, doi:10.1029/2009GL038557, 2009
Della-Marta, P., Hubert Mathis, Christoph Frei, Mark A. Liniger, Jan Kleinn, and Christof Appenzeller, 2008: The return period of wind storms over Europe, Int. J. Climatol. 29: 437–459 (2009)
Donat, MG, Leckebusch, GC, Pinto, JG, Ulbrich, U. 2009: Examination of Wind Storms over Central Europe with respect to Circulation Weather Types and NAO phases. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1982
Donat, M., Leckebusch, G.C., Ulbrich U., 2007: Changing European circulation types in a greenhouse gas climate and their relation to the occurrence of extreme wind storms - a multi model ensemble approach, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, EGU2007-A07039, 2007. http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2007/07039/EGU2007-A-07039.pdf
Fronzek, S., T.R. Carter, J. Räisänen, L. Ruokolainen and M. Luoto (2009). Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: a case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia. Climatic Change, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9679-y
Fronzek et al. 2005. Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of palsa mires in subarctic Fennoscandia. Submitted to Climate Research.
Giannakopoulos et al. 2005. Report on the impacts of a 2C global rise in the Mediterranean. A Report for WWF, 67 pp. http://www.panda.org/downloads/climate_change/medreportfinal8july05.pdf
Gregow, H., Venäläinen, A., Laine, M., Niinimäki, N., Seitola, T., Tuomenvirta, H., Jylhä, K., Tuomi, T. ja Mäkelä, A., 2008. Danger-causing weather phenomena in changing Finnish Climate (In Finnish, English Abstract). Finnish Meteorological Institute, Reports 2008:3
Jones, A. and Morse, A. (2007). DEMTER-driven prediction of epidemic malaria in Africa: initial results from a continental-scale study, CLIVAR Exchanges, 43, 34-35
Kundzewicz Z.W. 2007: River Floods in the Changing Climate, Proceedings V. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi, Bildiriler Kitabi. Ankara, Turkey, 5-7 September 2007, 27-38
Kundzewicz Z.W., Mata L.J., Arnell N., Döll P., Jiménez B., Miller K., Oki T., Sen Z., Shiklomanov I. 2008: The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 53(1), 3-10.
Leckebusch, G.C., U. Ulbrich, and M. Donat, 2008: Extreme Events and Climate Change: A Multi-model Ensemble Analysis. Inha University, Incheon: International Symposium in Climate Change Research, Seoul, South Korea. Conference Proceedings, pp. 69-73.
Leckebusch, G. C., U. Ulbrich, L. Fröhlich, and J. G. Pinto, 2007, Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027663.
Leckebusch, G.C., B. Koffi, U. Ulbrich, J. Pinto, T. Spangehl, S. Zacharias, 2006: Analysis of frequency and intensity of winter storm events in Europe on synoptic and regional scales from a multi-model perspective. Climate Research, 31, 59-74
Leckebusch, G.C.; Ulbrich, U.; Fröhlich, L.; Pinto, J.G.; Donat, M., 2007: European storms and their property loss potential under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations - a global and regional climate model analysis, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, EGU2007A-06477, 2007. http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2007/06477/EGU2007-A-06477.pdf
Le Sager, P., C. Giannakopoulos, A. Vajda and A. Venalainen, 2006: Estimating forest fire risk in North and South Europe: a comparitive study using two different fire indices. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 04030, 2006, SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU06A-04030 http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/04030/EGU06-J-04030.pdf
Marletto V., Francesca Ventura, Giovanna Fontana, Fausto Tomei, 2007. Wheat growth simulation and yield prediction with seasonal forecasts and a numerical model. Agric. For. Meteor. 147(1-2): 71-79
Milly, P.C.D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R.M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Lettenmaier, D.P., Stouffer, R.J. 2008: Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management? Science 319:573-574, 1 February 2008.
Olesen, J.E. (2006). Reconciling adaptation and mitigation to climate change in agriculture. In Boutron, C. (ed.) From regional climate modelling to the exploration of Venus. ERCA - volume 7. Journal de Physique IV France 139, 403-411.
Pavan V. et al., 2005: Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over Northern Italy. Tellus, 57A:424-434.
Piao S L, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Viovy N., 2007, Recent climate trends in the northern hemisphere and their impact on vegetation growing season and productivity. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, in press.
Piao S L, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Ducoudré N, Labat D, Zaehle S. , 2006, Climate and land use changes have a larger impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. in press.
Piao S L, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Zhou L, Chen A., 2006, The effect of climate and CO2 changes on the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades. Geophysical Research Letter, 33, L23402, doi:10.1029/2006GL028205.
Pinto, J.G., E.L. Fröhlich, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2007: Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 165-175, 2007.
Rost, S., Gerten, D., and Heyder, U., 2008: Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management. Advances in Geosciences, 18, 43-50, 2008
Rost, Stefanie, Gerten, Dieter, Bondeau, Alberte, Lucht, Wolfgang, Rohwer, Janine, Schaphoff,Sibyll, 2007 (rev. 2008): Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resources Research, 44, W09405, doi:10.1029/2007WR006331, 2008
Scholze, M., W. Knorr, N.W. Arnell and I.C. Prentice (2006) A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103: 13 116-13 120.
Sitch, S., C. Huntingford, N. Gedney, P.E. Levy, M. Lomas, S. Piao, R. Betts, P. Ciais, P. Cox, P. Friedlingstein, C.D. Jones, I.C. Prentice and F.I. Woodward (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using 5 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1-25.
Sofiev, M., Tryjanowski, P. & Wolf, A. 2007: Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. In: Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. BACC Author Group, Springer Verlag. pp. 221-308.
Tomei F., Pavan V., Antolini G., Marletto V., Villani G., Ventura F., 2008. Seasonal weather predictions and crop modelling for wheat yield forecasting in Northern Italy. Accepted for presentation at the European Society for Agronomy Congress, Bologna 15-19 September 2008.
Tomei F., Antolini G., Bittelli M., Marletto V., Pasquali A., Van Soetendael M., 2007. Validation of the Criteria water balance model (in Italian, extended abstract). AIAM 2007, 10th Agrometeorology national meeting, Calabria, 29 May - 1 June 2007, Abstract book, 66-67.
Ulbrich, U., J.G. Pinto, H. Kupfer, G.C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, M. Reyers, 2007: Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations. Submitted to J. Climate
Venäläinen, A., Jylhä, K., Kilpeläinen, T., Saku, S., Tuomenvirta, H, Vajda, A. and Ruosteenoja, K., 2007. Recurrence of heavy precipitation, dry spells and deep snow cover in Finland based on observations. Boreal Env. Res.
Wetterhall, F., Graham, L.P., Andréasson, J., Hellström, S-S., Rosberg, J., 2007. A rainfall-runoff model´s sensitivity to extreme events. Proceedings from the Third International Conference on Climate and Water. Helsinki, Finland, 3-6 September 2007. SMHI, abstract of oral presentation, 35 countries, 350 participants.

Scenarios (RT7)

Eboli, F., Parrado, R., Roson, R., 2008: Climate Change Feedback on Economic Growth: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model, A Special report of Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici and Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy. JEL CODES: C68, E27, O12, Q54, Q56.
Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, S., Lloyd, S. and Tol, R.S.J., 2009: The direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity, in Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health, Vol. 64, No. 4
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